Problems of development of the education system of Ukraine are largely due to socio-economic and demographic circumstances, which in turn depend on the socio-political situation in the country. The wave-like changes in the components of the demographic situation in Ukraine and their connection with the waves of chain changes in GDP are clearly traced.

The socio-political situation in Ukraine changed in accordance with such system-forming processes as gaining independence, building a national political system, privatization, transition to market relations, introduction of national currency, global economic crisis, periodic elections to the Verkhovna Rada and presidential elections, «orange» square, the revolution of dignity, the military conflict with Russia.

Quantitative indicators of the system are due to a significant reduction in the birth rate, which determined the acceleration of the annual population decline in all age groups. The COVID-19 pandemic, which continues in 2021, has contributed to population decline. In 2020, the number of deaths in Ukraine increased compared to 2019 by 35.7 thousand people.

However, in 2002–2008, the birth rate in Ukraine increased, which led to an increase in the number of high school students (ZNZ) from 2015 to 2020. According to the author’s forecast, their number will begin to decline from 2021 and will reach 3,554,000 students in 2026, which are 650,000 fewer students than in the pre-war 2013.

A significant reduction in the number of CEE students in 2026 can not but affect the number of these educational institutions. Even with the current average school capacity of 272 students in 2019, 13,000 schools will be needed per school, with 15.2 thousand in 2019. Obviously, the structure of school reductions should depend on the number of students in the region, city, village, and topography. placement and, of course, the quality of teaching staff.

As for universities, academies, institutes, starting from 2019, there will be an increase in the contingent of freelance students in Ukraine. This is in line with existing evidence on the number of births since 2002. It is at this time, according to the State Statistics Service, there is a gradual increase in their number. If there are no cardinal changes in the socio-economic situation in Ukraine, the contingent of freelance students will tend to increase in the coming years (approximately until 2026), after which there will be a significant reduction in the contingent.

The declining trend in the birth rate, which has been observed since 2014, will have an impact not only on the contingent of freelance students, but also on other quantitative indicators of higher education in Ukraine, including: the number of freelancers the size of the scholarship fund and the salary fund of the staff of the HEI, etc. That is, forecasting the dynamics of quantitative indicators of the education system of Ukraine forms the basis for building a strategy for its development, but only taking into account the needs of the labor market, this strategy can be really useful for the country.

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