Studies have shown that in the conditions of stable development of the state the basic indicator for forecasting the functioning of the educational sector is the number of births. However, in Ukraine in 2014 there were events that led to the loss of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. This was the loss not only of part of the territory and economic potential, but also of part of the population, which led to abrupt changes in the demographic situation, which could not but affect the development of the education system. These changes are vividly illustrated by the graphs in Fig. 1.5.

The graphical representation of these indicators confirms some similarity of their changes in time at the corresponding shifts on the abscissa axis. In the graphs, the abscissa axis for the indicator «the number of children enrolled to the first grade» has a shift relative to the abscissa axis of the indicator «thousands of people born» for six years. Thus, the first value of the abscissa axis of the indicator «thousands were born» corresponds to 1997, while the first value of the abscissa axis of the indicator «number of children enrolled to the first grade» corresponds to 2003 (1997+6), which is determined by the essence of these indicators.

A comparison of these two indicators according to the abscissa axis of the indicator «the number of children enrolled to the first grade» shows that since 2008 the difference between the number of births and those enrolled to the first grade begins to increase from 11.3 thousand to 21.7 thousand people with small fluctuations over the years. On average over the years, this difference was 18.4 thousand people. Thus, 2,585.8 thousand people were born during this period, and 2,475.2 thousand people went to the first grade of school, which means that 110.6 thousand people remained out of school for six years. The explanation for this fact may be in the plane of migration processes, as mortality has stabilized during this period and therefore can not be a reason to reduce the number of first-graders. See Table 1.1, column 3 and Fig. 1.2.

In 2014, according to the abscissa axis of the indicator «number of children enrolled to the first grade», the difference between the number of births and those who came to the first grade was 99 thousand people. The explanation for this value is obvious – it is the loss of Crimea and part of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. However, it is necessary to take into account the trend that emerged in the previous period from 2008 to 2013, when the negative impact of migration processes began to be felt. If we take as a constant the number of children who did not come to the first grade due to migration at 18.4 thousand people, then in 2014 the loss of the number of first-graders from the occupied territories will be 80.6 thousand people (99 thousand people – 18.4 thousand people).

In 2015, a significant number of people moved from the occupied territories and sent their children to the first grade in the free territory of Ukraine. Therefore, the difference between the number of births in 2009 and the number of first-graders in 2015 is much smaller than in the previous year and is 78 thousand people. Taking into account the «migration» constant, the loss of first-graders due to the occupation will be equal to 59.6 thousand people (78 thousand people – 18.4 thousand people).

From 2014 to 2020, 2,977.8 thousand people were enrolled to the first grade, while in the period corresponding to the terms of birth from 2008 to 2014, 3,513.7 thousand people were born. Thus, the education system of Ukraine has not counted 535.9 thousand first-graders in 7 years, or an average of 76.56 thousand people annually.