1.2 Forecasting indicators of the education system of Ukraine

Let’s compare the size of the estimated contingent of column 4 with the actual contingent of column 5. The actual contingent in the interval 2015–2019 consistently exceeds the estimated. Thus, the proposed formula underestimates the annual number of people studying at universities, academies, institutes. The annual deviation averages 57.5 thousand people. We take this number as a constant CBB0. The forecast contingent of persons studying in the data of HEI (PCO*) (column 5, Table 1.9) for 2020 is calculated by the formula:

The forecast contingent of HEIs (FCO*(t) – column 5, Table 1.9) for 2021–2026 is calculated by the formula:

where FPI *(t) – the forecast number of persons included in the HEIs in a given year; FPG *(t) – forecast number of persons graduated from the HEIs in a given year. Thus, starting from 2020, there will be an increase in the contingent of HEIs students in Ukraine. This is in line with existing evidence on the number of births since 2002. It is at this time, according to the State Statistics Service, there is a gradual increase in their number. This trend persisted until 2013 (Fig. 1.14).

The conducted research can be used as a marketing basis for solving urgent problems of higher education in the process of internal and external management of higher education institutions.

That is, we can conclude that the contingent of HEIs students will tend to increase in the coming years (approximately until 2026), after which there will be a decrease in the contingent.

The declining trend in the birth rate, which has been observed since 2014, will have an impact not only on the HEIs contingent, but also on other quantitative indicators of higher education in Ukraine, including the number of HEIs, the number of teaching staff, the number of places in hostels, the size of the scholarship fund and the salary fund of pedagogical staff, etc. That is, forecasting the dynamics of quantitative indicators of the education system of Ukraine makes it possible to correctly build a strategy for its development.

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