1.2 Forecasting indicators of the education system of Ukraine

The record number of open higher education institutions is from 1994 to 1996, when 115 of them were opened. This number of new educational institutions easily accepted all those wishing to obtain a diploma of higher education.

Almost everyone wishing to obtain a diploma of higher education could fulfill their desire, regardless of available cognitive abilities. Even the introduction of a mandatory external independent evaluation in 2008 could not stop this process.

Along with the change in the number of universities, academies, and institutes, the contingent of people studying there changed. In Fig. 1.13 the schedule of average filling of one HEI on years is presented. 

Regarding the forecast values of the output from HEI, the calculation was carried out according to the algorithm of «average deviations». To calculate the constant CBB – «the average deviation of the number of persons enrolled to HEIs (universities, academies, institutes) from the number of persons graduated from HEIs (universities, academies, institutes)» was calculated the difference between them in 2014, 2015 and 2018, 2019, respectively. It amounted to 139.5 thousand people. Then the annual constant of CBB is equal to 69.75 thousand people. At first glance, it seems strange that fewer students are enrolled to such HEIs than four years later. However, the explanation for this is in the system of statistical reporting, according to which only persons enrolled in the HEI for the first time belong to those enrolled (without those who continue their studies in order to obtain a higher educational degree (educational qualification level)).

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