1.2 Forecasting indicators of the education system of Ukraine

If we assume that as of 2026 the ratio between learners and teachers will not change and will remain at the level of nine students (9.4) per teacher (value for 2019), then for the future contingent 3,554.0 thousand 378 thousand teachers will be needed, which is 68 thousand teachers less than in 2019. Although according to the Institute of Educational Analytics [15] the workload of teachers in specialized schools, gymnasiums and colleges exceeds 11 students. If we accept the hypothesis that the most qualified teachers work in these secondary schools, we have a banal conclusion – there is a lack of competent professionals. Thus, there is a real problem of training quality teachers in the HEI. It is due primarily to the low attractiveness of pedagogical work, which is formed in Ukraine. Applicants with extremely low competitive scores are accepted for the state form of education in pedagogical specialties, which demonstrates the appropriate level of their cognitive abilities.

The cardinal solution of this problem lies in the plane of methods of formation of the state order and the maintenance of «rules of reception in HEI». A more detailed analysis of the situation will be presented in the following sections of the monograph.

A significant reduction in the number of secondary school learners in 2026 can not but affect the number of these educational institutions. Even with the existing average school capacity of 272 learners in 2019, one school will need 13 thousand schools in the presence of 15.2 thousand in 2019. Obviously, the structure of school reduction should depend on the number of learners in the region, city, village, their topography placement and, of course, the quality of teaching staff.

No less important is the problem of the development of higher education in Ukraine in connection with the development of secondary school. From a formal, quantitative point of view, it is characterized by several indicators. First of all, the ratio of the number of learners who received a certificate of complete general secondary education (graduated from 11th grade) and the number of people enrolled to the HEI education (universities, academies, institutes) is informative. Actual data on these indicators are presented in Table 1.1, columns 12, 13, and forecasts are presented in Tables 1.5 and 1.6, column 4 (forecasting by the first algorithm). Graphic representation of indicators is given in Fig. 1.11. 

The graphs demonstrate a steady trend of exceeding the number of students enrolled to the HEIs (universities, academies, institutes) over the number of students who received a certificate of secondary education (graduated from 11th grade). This phenomenon is due to the fact that universities, academies, institutes are enrolled en masse by graduates of colleges and technical schools, colleges, for which the rules of admission until recently did not provide for mandatory external independent evaluation.

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