1.2 Forecasting indicators of the education system of Ukraine

Model I. Given the location of the settlements of the district and the number of students in terms of classes, it is necessary to form support schools, where children and teachers will be brought in the morning and taken home in the evening after classes. This model has its own clear interdependent quantitative characteristics:

  • the number of children in need of transfer;
  • the number of teachers corresponding to the number of learners;
  • the total distance that the vehicle must travel;
  • the time required to deliver learners and teachers;
  • the number of transport units required for the transfer;
  • the amount of fuel to ensure the delivery of learners and teachers;
  • number of drivers and the number of mechanics who service vehicles;
  • the number of medical staff to check the health of drivers before the trip;
  • the amount of funds for repair and maintenance of transport;
  • the number of other personnel servicing the transport, including managers, engineers and economists.

These quantitative characteristics must be standardized, which requires a professional approach, as any endeavor can be destroyed if the transport system is not balanced. For example, if the number of learners, the distance to be covered, and the number of vehicles are in such a ratio that it takes three hours in the morning to transport children and in the evening the same amount to drive home, then such a system cannot be considered effective because it takes teachers and children travel six hours a day.

Model II. For secondary and high school learners, in the case that daily transport services are impossible or economically unreasonable, it is necessary to create weekly boarding schools. Accordance to this model learners should be brought to the boarding school on Monday morning, and taken home on Friday evening. Under this approach, it is necessary to calculate additional quantitative characteristics:

  • the number of beds for children in the hostel;
  • the number of seats in the dining room;
  • funds for four meals a day for children in the dining room;
  • the additional number of teachers to work with children in the afternoon;– the number of staff serving the hostel.

The internal (boarding school) form of the organization of training theoretically allows to equip as much as possible educational process with technical means, methodical maintenance and qualitative pedagogical staffs. In addition, the independent work of learners in the afternoon can be optionally well organized by teachers in the classroom. Educational work can also be carried out at a high level if desired.

However, this form of organization of the educational process separates children from the family structure, from involving them in housework, from living in the interests of the family and, consequently, socially disorienting children. In addition, this form can leave our villages without young people.

But it should be taken into mind that it is also necessary to give children with innovative abilities the opportunity to actively develop in a creative environment, which can be provided in specialized boarding schools at the high school level.

In addition, it should be borne in mind that secondary schools funding is provided from local budgets, the filling of which will depend on the success of the decentralization reform.

Therefore, when choosing a model, one should take into account the social consequences, which are difficult to quantify, but they can work in a strategic dimension either for the prosperity of the state or for its decline. However, the primacy of the social component in the process of choosing a model does not preclude consideration of the economic criterion, which provides in each case the calculation of these characteristics in order to estimate the cost of a model to make a final decision.

In any case, the reduction of the number of students in secondary schools to the level of approximately 4 million learners and the existence of such a level for ten years leaves no choice but to reduce the number of relevant educational institutions. In such a development, it is necessary to develop the most effective scenario for such a reduction with the choice of the most adequate model.

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