1.2 Forecasting indicators of the education system of Ukraine

Based on this contingent of learners, it is necessary to calculate the network of schools and the contingent of teachers.

The dynamics of the actual average occupancy of schools is given in Table 1.1 (see ninth column). The maximum occupancy rate was observed in 1990 and was 327 learners per school, while the minimum actual occupancy rate was 212 students in 2010. Since 2011, there has been a slight tendency to increase this indicator and as of 2019. its value was 272 learners per school.

According to forecast data, in 2020 the number of learners in secondary schools will reach its maximum and will amount to 4,172.0 thousand children (see Table 1.7). In the case of a constant number of schools, the school capacity will average 275 learners per school.

However, if we analyze the structure of school occupancy in terms of regions, cities and villages of Ukraine, the deviations from this average will be significant.

The most tragic situation with the occupancy of schools is observed in rural areas, due to socio-economic factors. The problem of small schools, according to the author, should be solved individually in each case, based on the local situation, and separately for secondary schools I, II and III degrees, due to the difference in age of learners, as well as the necessary staff, methodological and material technical support.

For primary schools that provide primary general education for children aged 6 to 10 (grades 1–4), the place of study should be chosen according to the criterion of maximum proximity to the place of residence of the parents. It should be borne in mind that the logistics of these schools will be less expensive than for primary and secondary schools.

For second grade school that provide basic general secondary education for children 11–15 years (5–9 classes), the main criterion should be staff pedagogical, methodological and logistical support. This is necessary so that the school management has the opportunity to ensure the necessary quality of education and prepare learners to study in specialized vocational schools and to receive a complete general secondary education in third grade school.

The senior school for children of 16–18 years (10–12 classes) with this or that profile should be provided as much as possible both with qualified pedagogical staffs, and the necessary equipment.

Under conditions of significant reduction of the contingent of secondary school learners (Fig. 1.10) the system of children’s education can be organized according to the following models.

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