1.2 Forecasting indicators of the education system of Ukraine

The model has a limitation on the time of extrapolation until 2024, because from 2025 the education system of Ukraine will be affected by factors that did not act in the formation of actual data used in the synthesis of the approximation model (1.4). When using this model to predict the indicator «Received a certificate of complete secondary education» (graduated from 11 classes) outside the interval 2020–2024, its inadequacy seems obvious. See Table 1.6, column 6 and Fig. 1.7.

The movement of the contingent of secondary school learner is schematically presented in the Fig. 1.8, and the relationship of variables that determine this movement – in Fig. 1.9.

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