Forecasting is a powerful management tool in any socio-economic system. An important component of such systems is the education system, which makes forecasting indicators of its development an important area of management at the micro-, meso- and macro- levels.
The basis of prognostic work is a substantive analysis, without which any formal methods will not be able to give acceptable results. Let’s analyze the indicators of the education system.
The wave-like nature of changes in demographic indicators and GDP (see graphs in Fig. 1.1) has led to a corresponding feature of the dynamics of indicators of the education system. Their numerical values are presented in Table 1.1.
Consider the following indicators:
– children are enrolled in the first grade;
– number of persons received a certificate of basic general secondary education (completed nine classes);
– number of persons received a certificate of completion of general secondary education (completed eleven grades);
– number of persons enrolled to study in the HEIs (universities, academies, institutes);
– number of persons graduated from HEIs (universities, academies, institutes);
– number of persons in general secondary schools;
– number of persons in HEIs (universities, academies, institutes).
Next in the text under the abbreviation HEIs only universities, academies, institutes are meant.
The essence of these indicators determines their fundamental dependence on the birth rate in a given year. Graphic representation of the dynamics of some of these indicators is given in Fig. 1.5.